Businesses make plans for the future—expansion, capacity, hiring, inventory, and new products. For these decisions, it is important to estimate how many people will live in a region, what their age structure will be, and how fast markets will grow. Population projections provide a structured way to estimate future population under stated assumptions. This topic introduces key projection methods, assumptions and limitations, and shows how businesses convert demographic projections into demand forecasts.
A population projection is an estimate of future population size and structure based on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration.
Key point: projections are “if-then” estimates—if assumptions hold, then population will be like this.
In practice, many reports provide multiple projection scenarios (low/medium/high).
This method projects population by age-sex cohorts:
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Methods of population projection include:
(Any three methods like trend extrapolation can be written.)
Assumptions used in population projections include:
(Any three assumptions can be written.)
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Businesses make plans for the future—expansion, capacity, hiring, inventory, and new products. For these decisions, it is important to estimate how many people will live in a region, what their age structure will be, and how fast markets will grow. Population projections provide a structured way to estimate future population under stated assumptions. This topic introduces key projection methods, assumptions and limitations, and shows how businesses convert demographic projections into demand forecasts.
A population projection is an estimate of future population size and structure based on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration.
Key point: projections are “if-then” estimates—if assumptions hold, then population will be like this.
In practice, many reports provide multiple projection scenarios (low/medium/high).
This method projects population by age-sex cohorts:
It is used because it gives both total population and age structure.
Businesses combine projected population with other inputs:
Because it produces age structure, which is essential for education, healthcare, labour and market planning.
Businesses reduce risk by planning for multiple plausible outcomes instead of relying on one forecast.
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A population projection is an estimate of future population based on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration. It is useful because businesses need to plan markets, capacity and workforce for future years.
There are different methods of population projection. The arithmetic method assumes a constant absolute increase in population each year, so it is useful for short-term estimates when change is stable. The geometric/exponential method assumes population grows at a constant percentage rate, so it reflects compounding growth when the growth rate remains stable. Trend extrapolation extends past patterns into the future, but it can be risky when conditions change.
The cohort-component method is the most detailed and widely used. It projects population by age-sex cohorts. Each cohort is moved forward in time (aging), births are added to the youngest group using fertility assumptions, deaths are subtracted using mortality assumptions, and migration is added/subtracted.
For business forecasting, these projections help estimate future market size, segment demand by age group, plan store/branch expansion, and forecast workforce supply. Using scenarios (low/medium/high) helps businesses manage uncertainty.
Thus, population projection methods provide a foundation for realistic and risk-aware business forecasts.